The Executive Director, Centre for Democratic Development Research and Training (CEDDERT), Prof. Abubakar Siddique, has called for deliberate investments to counter the growing insecurity and underdevelopment in Northern Nigeria.
Siddique made the call in a paper on “Nigerian Socio-economic and Security Challenges: Implications for Northern States”, presented at the 2nd General Hassan Usman Katsina Memorial Lecture on Saturday in Kaduna.
He said that Nigeria would not move from its present level of development if it continues to leave half of the country behind.
According to him, Northern Nigeria is at the heart of Nigeria’s challenges and its potential.
“The region’s sheer scale is pivotal, it contains majority of Nigeria’s population and the majority of the country’s poor.
“With poverty rates around 70 per cent and literacy around 30 pwr cent in the North-West/North-East, Nigeria cannot achieve middle-income or developed status while leaving half the country behind,” he said.
He said that the World Bank had observed that almost all the increase in the number of Nigerians living in extreme poverty since 2010 came from the North, thereby offsetting any progress in the South.
“This means national poverty reduction targets, lile lifting 100 million out of poverty in a decade, are unattainable without a drastic turnaround in the North.
“A stable, prosperous Northern Nigeria is essential for Nigeria’s unity and growth,” he said.
Siddique said that the North’s per-capita income and human development should match those of the South.
According to him, of that happens, Nigeria’s GDP could be at least 2–3 per cent higher, and the national poverty rate would drop by more than 20 percentage points.
“Likewise, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for Nigeria by 2030 heavily depends on progress in the North.
“Currently, states like Sokoto and Bauchi rank at the bottom on nearly all SDG indicators (UN SDG Index, 2022),” he said.
He said that insecurity in the North also had national spillovers on food inflation, which hit 23 per cent, a 17-year high in 2022, because of supply disruptions driven by conflicts.
“Conversely, peace in the North would boost investor confidence countrywide and allow reallocating billions from military spending to development.
“In short, Nigeria’s long-term stability, economic ambitions and international standing hinge on effectively addressing Northern Nigeria’s socio-economic and security crises.
“The data and analysis presented reinforce that without bold reforms and inclusive growth in the North, Nigeria’s overall development will remain fragile and uneven.
“The urgency for evidence-based strategies and sustained commitment to transform Northern Nigeria cann ot be overstated; it is both a regional imperative and a national necessity,” Sadique said.
He also called for thorough institutional reforms to enhance security, access to education, interfaith and inter-ethnic dialogue.
He suggested leveraging agricultural and mineral resources to drive development, and deliberate job creation strategies to address mass unemployment in the region.
The Professor said that the traditional justice and reconciliation mechanisms should be revived while efforts must be strengthened in building public trust through rule of law reforms.
He said that anti-corruption and transparency measures were needed to restore trust as Nigeria’s corruption perception presently is very poor.
On security, he backed ongoing reintegration of ex-combatants to break the cycle of violence, saying that the mix of force and reconciliation were needed to restore peace.
He called for the institutionalisation of community-led early warning systems to reinforce efforts of security forces to prevent major violence.
He also called for the interfaith and inter-ethnic dialogue platforms, which have shown success in reducing violence in some states like Plateau and Kaduna.
Siddique also advocated for the re-orientation of the security forces towards intelligence and prevention, so as to predict and prevent outbreaks of violence through data.
